That's pretty good. But I remember a recent poll that showed the Tories at 39.9% so that's down. It's still not enough for a Majority. The only good news I've heard about that recently is that the Conservatives are actually "targeting" specific ridings. Like for example, Ruby Dhalla and Brampton-Springdale, who won by just over 800 votes. I'm not sure if these polls reflect the true sense of voter mood, but I just hope they know what they are doing.
If this is true, some things have to stay the same.
First: They must win every seat that they currently own.
Second: They must reach out to those ridings where they were second and where the margin of victory was the closest.
Third: They must put a Candidate who's got an excellent chance of winning.
There was one Alberta seat that they lost. To I'm sure a lot of people surprise, it was won by the NDP. They should try to win that back. Let's hope they can do it. '
Here we go:
http://news.nationalpost.com/2011/04/19/tories-hit-home-stretch-with-12-point-lead-over-liberals-poll/
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Its plenty for a majority.
ReplyDeleteThink 1997.
The left is split down the middle across the country and three ways in Quebec.
The ground game is key to picking up a majority mandate. The CPC are targeting in excess of 30 seats. With the M.O.E. in national polls we have no real (substantive) movement from 2008.
ReplyDeleteWe don't need a big move in the national #, we need those 30 ridings to shift a few points in the blue.
In Toronto the Lib-NDP cheerleaders were not prepared for the 8 minute contest that saw Rob Ford win.
We don't have data to drill down riding by riding.
they need about 12 ridings if they hold the ones they currently have... there are more than 12 ridings across all of canada where the margin was under 1000 votes
ReplyDeletehttp://www.threehundredeight.blogspot.com/
ReplyDeleteDown 5 seats from last week's projection
Keep in mind that in 2008 the Cons were polling in the 36% range only to get almost 38% on election day.
ReplyDeleteIt's mainly due to the demographics of each party's supporters and their level of commitment.
This time the Cons have polled in the 38% - 40% range. If tradition holds, then we can hope for about 40%-42%.
That should be enough if the splits break our way. Nothing guaranteed, but it looks pretty good still.
I agree with Funger in that we always poll higher in the election. Majority on the way!
ReplyDelete